Early Voting Trends in Arizona, Nevada, & North Carolina

With just over a week left until the Nov. 5 presidential election, more than 40 million people have already cast their votes early. The data provided by the University of Florida’s Election Lab reveals that 41.2 million people have either voted by mail or in person early in the majority of states. Only a few states have not reported their data.

Party Affiliation and Early Voting

Compared to the previous election four years ago, Republicans are returning more mail-in ballots and voting early in-person. However, party affiliation does not necessarily indicate who the voters cast their ballots for. In states that report votes by party, registered Democrats have a slight lead over registered Republicans, with 40 percent to 36.2 percent respectively. Independent or minor party voters make up about 23.8 percent of the remainder.

Early Voting Methods

Republicans have a 9-point advantage over Democrats in in-person early voting, while Democrats have an 11-point lead over Republicans in mail-in ballot returns. As of Oct. 25, only 24.5 percent of mail-in ballots returned were from Republicans, while about 52.3 percent were from Democrats. Some 22.6 percent of returned mail ballots were from independents or those registered with minor parties.

Swing-State Voting Trends

In the swing state of Nevada, Republicans have a 5.1 percent early voting lead over Democrats. This state was previously called for President Joe Biden over Trump in 2020. Republicans also have a 6.9-percent advantage over Democrats in Arizona, a state that only reports mail-in ballots. Biden was also declared the victor in Arizona by a slim margin four years ago. In North Carolina, Republicans recently took the lead. By Sunday, the lead increased marginally to about 1.1 percent, or about 30,000 votes, over Democrats.

Pennsylvania's Mail-In Ballots

Pennsylvania has only reported mail-in ballots as of Oct. 27, showing that Democrats have a lead of more than 330,000 votes over Republicans. However, Democrats’ lead has narrowed in recent days, down about 19,000 votes since Oct. 24.

Bottom Line

With early voting already underway and millions of ballots already cast, the political landscape is shaping up in interesting ways. The trends in early voting, particularly in key swing states, could have significant implications for the final results. What are your thoughts on these early voting trends? Do you think they are indicative of the final election outcome? Share your thoughts and this article with your friends. Remember, you can sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is every day at 6pm.