Conflict in the Middle East: A Potential Spillover into the Caucasus?
Recent activities in the Middle East, primarily driven by the United States and Israel, have raised concerns about the possibility of the conflicts spilling over into the Caucasus. There have been discussions about a "total victory" and possible assassination attempts on key figures such as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Simon Watkins, a known figure in the neocon circle, has suggested the possibility of Israel attacking Iran from Azerbaijan, which could potentially lead to another war front, destruction of Middle East and Caspian energy infrastructure, and a global economic downturn.
The Caucasus: A Geopolitical Hotspot
The Caucasus, located at the intersection of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, is a major center for energy transfer and trade logistics. This makes it a hotbed for geopolitical maneuvering involving major players from the Middle East conflicts. One of the key areas of interest in the Caucasus is the Zangezur Corridor, a 42-kilometer strip of land in southern Armenia wedged between Azerbaijan and its exclave, Nakhchivan, and bordered by Iran to the south. Control over this territory plays a significant role in larger trade and energy projects, and is therefore of major interest to Iran, Russia, Turkey, Israel, and the US.
The Zangezur Corridor: A Major Bargaining Chip
The US has recently gained significant control over the fate of the Zangezur Corridor, due to its infiltration of the Armenian government. The corridor is now a major bargaining chip for Washington. The ceasefire agreement that ended the 2020 war between Azerbaijan and Armenia included a clause stating that Armenia is responsible for ensuring the security of transport links between the western regions of Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan. Azerbaijan and Turkey have interpreted this clause as their right to establish transportation links through southern Armenia.
Increasing Tensions and Potential Conflict
The involvement of the US in the region has made a peaceful agreement less likely, increasing the chances of destabilization spilling over from the Middle East. The starting point for any conflict in the southern Caucasus that draws in outside actors would likely be another round of fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The latter receives heavy military support from Israel and Turkey, while Armenia is now a western proxy with support primarily from France and the US, as well as India.
Iran's Position
Iran has reportedly made it clear to the US that if Israel/US attacks its energy infrastructure, it will respond in kind in the region, which includes not just the Middle East but the South Caucasus as well, specifically Azerbaijan. Iran is concerned about the Zangezur Corridor, as its implementation would result in Iran being eliminated as a bypass route around Armenia. Iran also doesn't want to lose influence over Azerbaijan, which relies on transit through Iran to connect to its exclave.
Israel and Azerbaijan's Relationship
Azerbaijan wants the Zangezur Corridor and has a friendly relationship with Israel, which serves as a counterweight to Iranian influence on Azerbaijan. However, both sides have accused each other of espionage and terrorism. From 2016 to 2020, Israel accounted for 69 percent of Azerbaijan’s major arms imports.
Bottom Line
The escalating tensions and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East have the potential to spill over into the Caucasus, a region already fraught with geopolitical maneuvering. The Zangezur Corridor, in particular, is a major point of contention, with multiple nations vying for control. The involvement of the US and Israel in the region further complicates matters, increasing the likelihood of conflict. It remains to be seen whether a peaceful resolution can be reached, or if the region will be drawn into the wider conflict. What are your thoughts on this issue? Share this article with your friends and let us know your opinions. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is delivered every day at 6pm.
