Declining Birth Rates to Impact Public Schools
The future of education is being shaped by a significant decline in birth rates in the United States and globally. As fewer children are born in America, and fewer children immigrate from abroad, the school-age population is predicted to dramatically decrease over the next few decades.
Previous and Upcoming Baby Busts
The United States has previously experienced a baby bust following the baby boom of the 1970s and 1980s. This gives some insight into what to expect. However, unlike the previous baby bust, which was a temporary result of the boomers aging out of school, the upcoming decline in school-age population appears to be indefinite.
A baby bust of unprecedented proportions is looming. Public school enrollments reached a peak of 50.8 million in 2019 and are projected to drop below 47 million by 2030. This is only the beginning. U.S. fertility rates hit an all-time low this year. Since the smaller number of children born this year will barely be entering school by 2030, the steep decline in school enrollments will accelerate after 2030.
Public school enrollments are projected to fall by more than 10 percent by 2031 in 20 states. The states with larger enrollment declines are predominantly blue states, with Hawaii, California, New Mexico, and New York leading with drops between 19 and 21 percent.
Impacts on Schools and Teachers
During the previous baby bust, declining school populations forced districts to close schools and lay off teachers. This resulted in teachers seeking protection from teachers’ unions, transforming them from local organizations concentrated in a few big cities into national political powerhouses.
As the share of the population with children in school declined in the 1970s, property tax revolts arose across the country. With access to local property taxes becoming more constrained, school districts turned to the state and federal governments for funds. The teachers’ unions used their increasing membership and political power to advocate for increased federal funding.
Funding Challenges
The shift from local property tax to state and federal sources of school funding was successful in reducing the extent of school closures and teacher layoffs, but it made schools more financially vulnerable to future reductions in enrollment. State and federal money is typically allocated to districts on a per pupil basis. If the number of pupils drops, funding is cut by a commensurate amount.
As school enrollments start to plummet, so will their funding. The various strategies that districts have employed in the past to compensate financially are less available to rescue them. State budgets are already stretched thin, and the increasing share of the population over the age of 65 places more demands on states to fund healthcare.
Future of Education
With a larger and more sustained drop in enrollments coming and with less opportunity for financial rescue, the school closings and teacher layoffs are likely to be much larger than they were in the 1970s and 1980s. Education colleges will lose even more enrollment than they already have, and many will have to close their doors.
The declining birth rates will also make adopting important reforms of the education system more challenging. However, plummeting fertility rates might provide a new argument for states to adopt choice programs. With fewer people being born, many states may experience shortages of labor. Empowering parents to have more options and control over the education of their children may give states a competitive advantage in attracting or retaining those families and their labor.
Bottom Line
The impending baby bust will undoubtedly reshape the landscape of public schools in America. As birth rates plummet, the competition for labor will grow more intense, increasing the appeal of adopting policies that empower families with educational options. What are your thoughts on this issue? Share this article with your friends and discuss it. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is everyday at 6pm.
