Egypt's Strategy to Handle the Influx of Rafah Refugees
Formation of the Arab Tribes Union
Introduction of a New Paramilitary Entity
Last week, the Arab Tribes Union, a new paramilitary entity consisting of five tribal groups from all over Egypt, was inaugurated in a grand ceremony. The event saw Sinai militia leader, Ibrahim al-Organi, arriving in a grand procession. The union was formed at a critical time when Israel launched a ground offensive against the Palestinian city of Rafah, which is close to the location of the Egyptian ceremony. The union also announced plans to construct Sisi City on the site of al-Arjaa, a village in Rafah near the Egypt-Israel border. The ceremony honored President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi as the honorary president of the union.
Impact of Israel's Assault on Rafah
The assault on Rafah by Israel is expected to cause further displacement of Palestinians in Gaza, possibly pushing them towards Egyptian territory. According to the UN Palestinian refugee agency, UNRWA, at least 80,000 have already fled Rafah. The union's founding statement highlighted its aim to adopt national issues and connect with all Arab tribes to serve the state's objectives and support the Egyptian president in protecting Egypt's national security against displacement plans.
Egypt's Concerns and Precautions
Historical Experiences of Palestinian Displacement
The Egyptian state is well aware of the historical experiences of Palestinian displacement and Israel's goal to empty historic Palestine of its people, seize their lands, and prevent their return. The Palestinian people's attachment to their land and their insistence on their right of return has made each area of Palestinian displacement a focal point for resisting occupation, which Egypt does not desire.
Precautions Taken by Egypt
Egypt has taken precautions early on for this scenario, reinforcing the fences and barriers along its border with the Gaza Strip, tightening border security, and mobilizing support and funding for alternative camps within Gaza itself. In the event of a mass displacement into its territory, Egypt plans to confine displaced Palestinians in a high-security, isolated area along the border.
Challenges and Risks
Issues with Egypt's Plan
However, there are a couple of issues with this plan. Many displaced Palestinians have family and tribal ties in the northern Sinai. The Egyptian and Palestinian cities of Rafah were once united as a single city, until Israel’s withdrawal from the Sinai and the demarcation of borders in 1982. Tribal customs compel hospitality and reception, which could weaken the ability of the Egyptian state to contain all displaced people in a single area.
Risks and Potential Consequences
Furthermore, there are significant risks that under difficult humanitarian conditions, his forces could become involved in smuggling operations, financial extortion, or other types of corruption. There are also inherent dangers of forming armed militias, which can prove disastrous to the security and stability of states, sometimes even playing a role in their disintegration.
Conclusion
The formation of the Arab Tribes Union is a strategic move by Egypt to handle the influx of refugees from Rafah. However, it comes with its own set of challenges and risks. It remains to be seen how effective this strategy will be in managing the refugee crisis. What are your thoughts on this matter? Do share this article with your friends and let us know your opinions. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is everyday at 6pm.
