Gulf States Lobby to Prevent Israeli Attack on Iranian Oil Sites
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are expressing deep concern over Israel's current threats of launching a major counter-attack on Iran, which could involve ballistic missiles and fighter jet strikes on key infrastructure, including energy and military sites. The Biden administration has been trying to dissuade Israel from attacking oil and gas sites this week.
Countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates are lobbying the US and Israel to refrain from attacking Iran's oil sites. They fear that such an escalation could lead Tehran to target oil facilities in the Gulf. This is a scenario that has already played out in the last half-decade of regional proxy conflict between the Iran axis and the West-Gulf country alliance.
The Saudis and GGC states are keen to avoid attacks which could impact their oil production and exports, such as the 2019 Abqaiq–Khurais Saudi Aramco drones strikes. The US blamed Iran for these historic attacks, but Tehran leaders never admitted to it. It is believed that the attacks may have been carried out by Iranian proxies from Iraq, but the West ultimately holds Tehran responsible.
Saudi Arabia's Diplomatic Efforts
Saudi Arabia has been trying to convince Iran of their neutrality through a series of high-level meetings. These meetings have included President Masoud Pezeshkian visiting Doha to meet with GCC officials. The talks have continued with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman meeting Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi on Wednesday during the latter's Gulf tour.
Reuters has reported more details of the warnings conveyed from the Iranian side. Iran is essentially telling the Saudis to dissuade the Israelis from attacking, or else...
Iran has warned Saudi Arabia that it cannot guarantee the safety of the Gulf kingdom's oil facilities if Israel is assisted in carrying out an attack. This warning was conveyed by a senior Iranian official and an Iranian diplomat.
US Involvement and Potential Complications
A key complication is the presence of US bases and troops in Saudi Arabia, including significant US Air Force assets. The US has pledged to help Israel repel any future Iranian ballistic missile counterattacks, as it has done in the past.
A broader Iran-Israel war would likely see the US pressuring the Saudis and GCC to allow American fighter jets based in the Gulf to engage Iran. Iran has reportedly threatened war if Riyadh cooperates in this.
Ali Shihabi, a Saudi analyst close to the Saudi royal court, said that the Iranians have stated that if the Gulf states open up their airspace to Israel, it would be considered an act of war. Tehran has sent a clear message to Riyadh that its allies in countries such as Iraq or Yemen might respond if there is any regional support for Israel against Iran.
Saudi Arabia's Response and Potential Oil Risk
Saudi Arabia appears to be taking steps to appease Iran. Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar are refusing to let Israel fly over their airspace for any attack on Iran and have conveyed this to Washington.
The Saudis and Iranians have made significant progress toward full diplomatic rapprochement over the past couple of years. Riyadh has also moved away from normalization with Israel in light of the Gaza war.
In terms of oil risk, it's important to remember that the 2019 attack on Saudi Aramco's oilfield shut down over 5% of the global oil supply. If Israel targets Iran's supply, OPEC has enough spare oil capacity to make up for it, but not if oil sites in Saudi Arabia and the UAE are hit by potential attacks from Iranian proxies.
Riyadh is seeking to reassure the Islamic Republic that the Gulf states won't allow Israel to use their airspace. They won't allow Israeli missiles to pass through, and they hope that they won't strike the oil facilities, according to a Gulf source.
Bottom Line
The situation in the Gulf is complex and fraught with potential for escalation. The actions of the Gulf states, the US, Israel, and Iran in the coming days and weeks will be critical in determining the course of this potential conflict. What are your thoughts on this issue? Feel free to share this article with your friends and discuss. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is delivered every day at 6pm.
