Iranian Oil Tankers Depart from Major Export Terminal Amid Fear of Israeli Attack

Iranian Oil Tankers Relocate from Kharg Island

Iranian oil tankers have been observed leaving Kharg Island, Iran's largest oil export terminal, due to concerns of a potential Israeli attack on Iran's crucial crude export infrastructure. Satellite imagery and tanker tracking companies have noted a significant departure of Iranian tankers from Kharg Island, which handles approximately 90% of Iran's total oil exports, according to CNBC.

Fears of an Imminent Attack

The National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) seems to be anticipating an imminent attack by Israel, according to a post by TankerTrackers.com on social media platform X late last Thursday. The company noted that Iran's empty VLCC supertankers had left the country's largest oil terminal, Kharg Island. TankerTrackers.com added that while crude oil loadings are still ongoing, all additional vacant shipping capacity has been removed from the anchorage of Kharg Island. This is the first occurrence of this kind since the 2018 sanctions round, TankerTrackers.com reported.

Changes Detected in Satellite Imagery

Two weeks ago, satellite imagery from the European Space Agency's Copernicus Sentinel-1 mission showed several very large crude carriers in the waters surrounding Kharg Island, as reported by CNBC. However, satellite images from October 3 showed no tankers in the vicinity of Iran's most crucial oil export terminal. The removal of vacant shipping capacity from Kharg Island suggests that Iran could be preparing for an Israeli attack on its oil infrastructure.

Oil Market Response and Potential Consequences

The oil market is also closely monitoring the Israeli response to the Iranian missile attack on Israel earlier this week. Oil prices increased by 1.5% early on Friday and are on track for a robust weekly gain due to renewed tensions in the Middle East. Most analysts believe that the OPEC spare capacity, primarily located in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, would be sufficient to offset an Iranian supply loss. However, a more substantial disruption to supply from the Middle East could result in triple-digit oil prices. Analysts currently consider attacks on oil infrastructure in other regional producers or the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to be low-probability events.

Bottom Line

This situation underscores the volatility and uncertainty that geopolitical tensions can introduce into global oil markets. As Iran prepares for a potential Israeli attack, the impact on oil prices and supplies could be significant. What are your thoughts on this development? Do you think the departure of Iranian oil tankers from Kharg Island will significantly affect global oil prices? Feel free to share this article with your friends and discuss. Remember, you can sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is delivered every day at 6pm.