Iran's Secret Warning to US Allies Across the Middle East
Following a phone call between President Biden, Vice President Harris, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the US and Israel have moved closer to a consensus regarding Israel's planned retaliation against Iran. However, reports suggest that Netanyahu is still seeking approval from his security cabinet, and no significant resolutions have been reached yet. Despite Iran launching approximately 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on October 1st, the anticipated large-scale counterstrikes have not yet occurred.
Iran's "Secret Warning"
The Wall Street Journal has reported on Iran's "secret warning" sent to other Middle Eastern countries this week as it prepares for potential retaliation from Israel. According to the WSJ, "Tehran is threatening in secret diplomatic backchannels to target the oil-rich Arab Gulf states and other American allies in the Middle East if their territories or airspace are used for an attack on Iran, said Arab officials."
Possible Use of Jordanian, UAE, or Saudi Airspace
Israel could potentially use airspace from Jordan, the UAE, or Saudi Arabia for such an attack, despite these countries officially rejecting such a possibility. It's worth noting that Gulf states are urging Israel to refrain from striking Iranian oil facilities, fearing that Tehran would retaliate by authorizing its proxies to attack Saudi Aramco sites, as happened in 2019.
Threats Against US Allies
The WSJ further reports that the countries threatened by Iran include Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, all of which host U.S. troops. These states have informed the Biden administration that they do not want their military infrastructure or airspace to be used by the U.S. or Israel for any offensive operations against Iran.
Informal Requests from Arab Countries
Regarding the requests from America's Gulf allies for Israel and the U.S. not to use their airspace for counter-Iran operations, the WSJ notes that these requests remain informal. A key complication is the presence of U.S. bases and troops in Saudi Arabia, including significant U.S. Air Force assets.
US Pledges to Help Israel
Washington has pledged to assist Israel in repelling any future Iranian ballistic missile counterattacks, as it did in the previous two rounds of drones and ballistic missiles fired on Israel. A broader Iran-Israel war would likely see the U.S. pressuring the Saudis and GCC to allow American fighter jets based in the Gulf to engage Iran.
Saudi Arabia's Steps to Appease Iran
Meanwhile, it appears that the Saudis are taking steps to appease Iran. Reuters reported this week that Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, are refusing to let Israel fly over their airspace for any attack on Iran and have communicated this to Washington.
Bottom Line
This situation is a complex web of diplomatic and military considerations, with the potential to significantly affect the balance of power in the Middle East. The secret warning from Iran to U.S. allies in the region underscores the high stakes and potential for escalation. What are your thoughts on this matter? Do you think the situation will escalate further, or can a peaceful resolution be found? Share your thoughts and this article with your friends. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is delivered every day at 6 pm.
