Is Harris' Media Campaign Causing Her Poll Numbers to Slip?
The recent polls and election odds seem to favor Trump, and many are questioning why this is the case. Sky News has released a video showcasing Harris' media campaign. However, it's important to note that a close race is not necessarily indicative of a polling disaster.
The Real Polling Disaster
The true disaster was the 22.7 percentage point drop in Trump's election odds within a three-week span, which was largely due to his poor performance in a debate. In the past three weeks, however, Trump has managed to regain 8 points of the 22.7 points he lost. While Nate Silver still places Trump slightly behind, the gap is minimal.
Polymarket Odds
Looking back to July 16, Harris could be 'bought' for 6 cents, while Trump cost 72 cents. Trump's value then dropped to 44 percent, down from 72 cents, marking a significant downturn. Currently, Trump can be 'bought' for 58 cents and Harris for 42 cents.
Is Nate Silver a Political Lagging Indicator?
Nate Silver's predictions have been questioned, as they seem to consistently align with Polymarket's predictions from a week prior. Harris' media campaign may have done more harm than good, with her appearances on 60 Minutes and The View being criticized. Additionally, Obama's recent criticism of black males may have had a negative impact.
The Economy's Role
The economy may also be playing a role in the shifting polls. Recent reports have shown a surge in initial and continued unemployment claims. The situation is even more dire than the continued claims chart suggests, with many individuals losing their benefits after 26 weeks of unemployment.
Change in Unemployment by Age Group and Race
The upcoming jobs report, set to be released on November 1, could potentially influence the election. Additionally, food prices increased by 0.4 percent in September, which could provide Trump with a powerful talking point.
Who Will Decide the Election?
In February, it was suggested that renters would be the deciding factor in the election, and this still seems to be the case. Young voters and black voters, who are less likely to have assets and more likely to be impacted by inflation, have been switching to Trump in large numbers.
Bottom Line
Harris' media campaign has shown that she will likely follow in Biden's footsteps. This, coupled with the state of the economy, may be putting Trump on the path to victory. However, with three weeks remaining, it's too soon to declare a winner. What are your thoughts on this? Share this article with your friends and let them know about the Daily Briefing, which takes place every day at 6pm.
