Israel Considering Attacks on Iranian Energy Sites
Despite no retaliation from Israel following Iran's major attack on October 1st, which saw almost 200 ballistic missiles hit the Tel Aviv area, Israel has indicated that strikes on Iran's energy facilities are still a possibility. This news has caused crude prices to spike, following a week of threats and counter-threats between Tehran and Tel Aviv.
US Officials Attempt to Dissuade Israel
Despite the US's attempts to dissuade Israel from retaliating, reports suggest that a significant counter-attack is still expected. The targets are likely to be Iranian military sites, intelligence sites, and officials' offices. President Biden has warned against striking Iran's nuclear sites and has recently backed away from the idea of hitting energy and oil facilities. However, the debate continues as both sides coordinate their response.
Israeli Hawks Advocate for Action
Some hardliners in the Israeli government are advocating for immediate action, arguing that this is Israel's best opportunity in 50 years to change the face of the Middle East. They believe that Iran's nuclear program and central energy facilities should be destroyed to cripple the regime. However, this rhetoric is reminiscent of the lead-up to the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, which resulted in significant death and destabilization, the rise of ISIS, and a pro-Tehran government in Baghdad.
US Offers "Compensation"
The US administration is reportedly offering Israel "compensation" for hitting only US-approved targets. An American official reportedly said, "If you don’t hit targets A, B, C, we will provide you with diplomatic protection and an arms package." Israeli officials responded by saying they would do anything necessary to protect the citizens and the security of the State of Israel.
Practical Problems
There is a significant practical problem concerning the desire of some Israeli officials to strike Iran's nuclear sites hard: US 'bunker-buster bombs' are needed to do damage to underground facilities. Much of Iran's missile silos are also protected underground, so Washington would need to approve any such attack.
US CENTCOM Chief in Israel
Currently, US CENTCOM Chief General Michael Kurilla is in Israel, leading the coordinated discussion from the US side. However, Congress seems to be absent from the conversation, despite US taxpayer dollars being used to potentially bribe Israel.
Former President Trump's View
Former President Donald Trump recently argued on the campaign trail that Israel should "hit the nuclear first and worry about the rest later." This viewpoint is likely to frustrate and anger a sizeable part of his base, which is tired of unauthorized 'forever wars', especially those waged on behalf of foreign powers that have little to do with the defense of the US homeland.
Bottom Line
The escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, coupled with the involvement of the US, present a complex and potentially dangerous situation. The potential for a significant counter-attack from Israel, despite US objections, raises many questions about the future of the region and the role of international diplomacy. What are your thoughts on this matter? Share this article with your friends and let's discuss. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is delivered every day at 6pm.
