Moldova's EU Referendum Vote Results in a Near-Tie - President Accuses Russia of Interference
With 98.42% of votes counted, the referendum on whether Moldova should join the European Union is at a near-tie. The results show 50.08% voting in favor and 49.92% against, a difference of just 2,285 votes out of 1.46 million cast. This close count defies previous polls that predicted a comfortable win for the 'Yes' vote. The incumbent president, who is also facing a surprise runoff for her position, has accused Russia of meddling in the election.
Moldova's Location and Demographics
Moldova, a republic with a population of around 3 million, is located between Romania and Ukraine. While most of its citizens speak Romanian, there is a substantial Russian-speaking minority. The country's sentiments and policies have alternated between pro-Russian and pro-Western, with a pro-Western inclination prevailing since the 2020 election of President Maia Sandu.
An additional geopolitical factor is the small breakaway republic of Transnistria, situated along the east bank of the Dniester River, between Ukraine and Moldova. Although unrecognized by any other state, Transnistria enjoys the economic and political backing of Russia, which has approximately 1,500 soldiers stationed there.
The EU Referendum and Presidential Election
The extremely close EU referendum and Sandu's underwhelming performance indicate a potential shift in the country's political leanings. Sandu garnered only 41% of the vote, while her main adversary, former Prosecutor General Alexandr Stoianoglo, received 27%. With the opposition expected to unite in the Nov. 3 runoff, Sandu's presidency could be at risk.
In response to the results, Sandu accused Russia of launching an “unprecedented assault on our country’s freedom and democracy,” and of rallying opposition to EU membership. She also alleged a "fraud of unprecedented scale,” involving a scheme to purchase 300,000 'No' votes.
As the election drew near, Sandu's government accused Israeli-born, fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor of election interference. Shor, convicted of fraud and theft for a scam that took $1 billion from Moldovan banks, was sentenced to 7.5 years in prison in absentia. Moldova now alleges that the 37-year-old funneled money from Russia into a vote-buying effort.
The Referendum's Implications
A 'Yes' victory in the referendum would not immediately grant Moldova EU membership. Instead, it would amend the country's constitution to state that EU membership is a goal of the republic, which declared its independence in 1991 following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Sandu has set 2030 as a target date for joining the EU.
The current situation in Moldova mirrors dynamics seen in the United States and Western Europe in recent years, with unexpected election results followed by allegations of Russian interference. Additionally, Moldovan authorities have censored online content they deemed as disinformation.
Bottom Line
The referendum count initially showed the 'No' vote leading, but the 'Yes' vote pulled ahead as absentee ballots were counted, many of which were cast by pro-EU Moldovans living abroad. This unfolding situation in Moldova serves as a reminder of how complex and unpredictable democratic processes can be, especially when external influences are suspected. What are your thoughts on this matter? Feel free to share this article with your friends. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is delivered every day at 6pm.
Moldova's EU Referendum Vote Results in a Near-Tie - President Accuses Russia of Interference
With 98.42% of votes counted, the referendum on whether Moldova should join the European Union is at a near-tie. The results show 50.08% voting in favor and 49.92% against, a difference of just 2,285 votes out of 1.46 million cast. This close count defies previous polls that predicted a comfortable win for the 'Yes' vote. The incumbent president, who is also facing a surprise runoff for her position, has accused Russia of meddling in the election.
Moldova's Location and Demographics
Moldova, a republic with a population of around 3 million, is located between Romania and Ukraine. While most of its citizens speak Romanian, there is a substantial Russian-speaking minority. The country's sentiments and policies have alternated between pro-Russian and pro-Western, with a pro-Western inclination prevailing since the 2020 election of President Maia Sandu.
An additional geopolitical factor is the small breakaway republic of Transnistria, situated along the east bank of the Dniester River, between Ukraine and Moldova. Although unrecognized by any other state, Transnistria enjoys the economic and political backing of Russia, which has approximately 1,500 soldiers stationed there.
The EU Referendum and Presidential Election
The extremely close EU referendum and Sandu's underwhelming performance indicate a potential shift in the country's political leanings. Sandu garnered only 41% of the vote, while her main adversary, former Prosecutor General Alexandr Stoianoglo, received 27%. With the opposition expected to unite in the Nov. 3 runoff, Sandu's presidency could be at risk.
In response to the results, Sandu accused Russia of launching an “unprecedented assault on our country’s freedom and democracy,” and of rallying opposition to EU membership. She also alleged a "fraud of unprecedented scale,” involving a scheme to purchase 300,000 'No' votes.
As the election drew near, Sandu's government accused Israeli-born, fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor of election interference. Shor, convicted of fraud and theft for a scam that took $1 billion from Moldovan banks, was sentenced to 7.5 years in prison in absentia. Moldova now alleges that the 37-year-old funneled money from Russia into a vote-buying effort.
The Referendum's Implications
A 'Yes' victory in the referendum would not immediately grant Moldova EU membership. Instead, it would amend the country's constitution to state that EU membership is a goal of the republic, which declared its independence in 1991 following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Sandu has set 2030 as a target date for joining the EU.
The current situation in Moldova mirrors dynamics seen in the United States and Western Europe in recent years, with unexpected election results followed by allegations of Russian interference. Additionally, Moldovan authorities have censored online content they deemed as disinformation.
Bottom Line
The referendum count initially showed the 'No' vote leading, but the 'Yes' vote pulled ahead as absentee ballots were counted, many of which were cast by pro-EU Moldovans living abroad. This unfolding situation in Moldova serves as a reminder of how complex and unpredictable democratic processes can be, especially when external influences are suspected. What are your thoughts on this matter? Feel free to share this article with your friends. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is delivered every day at 6pm.
