How NATO's Northeastern Flank Could Pose a Threat to Russia

The ongoing proxy war between NATO and Russia in Ukraine has been the focus of most discussions. This includes the improvised war of attrition being waged within the country, potential false flag attacks on nuclear power plants, and the conditions under which Russia or Belarus might resort to using nuclear weapons. However, one aspect that is often overlooked is the potential for NATO's northeastern flank to cause significant problems for Russia if commanded to do so.

Lithuania's Blockade and the New Iron Curtain

Lithuania's unsuccessful blockade of Kaliningrad in the summer of 2022 and the current efforts to establish an "EU defense line" from the Polish-Belarusian border to the Estonian-Russian border have not received much attention. This defense line could essentially function as a new Iron Curtain, potentially extending to the Finnish-Russian border. This situation could change following recent comments from the Commander of the Estonian Defense Forces about plans to close off the Gulf of Finland.

Estonia's Plans for the Gulf of Finland

The Commander of the Estonian Defense Forces has stated that maritime defense cooperation between Finland and Estonia is set to increase. They are prepared to completely block adversary activities in the Baltic Sea if necessary. The Russian Foreign Ministry has responded by stating that if Finland and Estonia plan to impose a complete blockade of the Gulf of Finland for Russian shipping, Russia will regard such actions as a clear violation of international maritime laws.

Potential Scenarios

The possibility of Estonia and Finland blockading the Gulf of Finland, coupled with Lithuania reimposing its own blockade on Russian access to Kaliningrad via Belarus, cannot be dismissed. While these actions might be a response to escalating NATO-Russian tensions rather than a surprise provocation, they could still trigger a crisis similar to the Cuban Missile Crisis. Russia will not allow its exclave of Kaliningrad, which serves as its westernmost operating base against NATO, to be cut off. There is also a possibility that if he wins the election, Trump might threaten Putin with this scenario as a negotiating tactic to get him to accept a potential deal in Ukraine. It is worth noting that Estonia would not discuss blockading the Gulf of Finland without prior encouragement from the US. These hawkish forces might either convince Trump that this is a good idea or have already persuaded Kamala to go through with it if she wins, which is a cause for global concern.

Bottom Line

The potential for NATO's northeastern flank to cause significant problems for Russia is a complex and concerning issue. The possibility of a blockade in the Gulf of Finland and the reimplementation of a blockade on Kaliningrad could escalate tensions and potentially trigger a serious crisis. What are your thoughts on this matter? Do you think these potential actions could lead to a significant escalation in tensions? Share your thoughts and this article with your friends. Remember, you can sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is delivered every day at 6pm.