Pandemic in Africa: Insights and Tactics
Africa's Pandemic Dilemma: The Need for Facts Over Fear
Africa is faced with a potential double-edged sword: the inability to control the pandemic and the inability to prevent economic collapse. The reasons for this are twofold. Firstly, due to insufficient state resources, most African nations do not have the administrative or healthcare systems necessary to enforce "test, isolate, treat, and trace" strategies. The concept of social distancing becomes challenging in the densely populated informal settlements that are common in many developing cities. Secondly, the prevalence of informal sectors and the heavy reliance on daily wages for survival mean that economic crises could exacerbate the suffering of millions, leading to increased illness and death.
The Global Impact of SARS-CoV-2
The SARS-CoV-2 virus, which originated in Wuhan, China, quickly spread globally, reaching Iran, Europe, and North America. As of May 15, there were 4.5 million confirmed cases of Covid-19, the disease caused by the virus, and over 300,000 deaths worldwide. This undoubtedly constitutes a serious pandemic.
However, to put things in perspective, the annual global death toll from leading causes such as heart diseases, strokes, lung cancers and diseases, influenza and pneumonia, diabetes, and diarrhoea and tuberculosis far surpasses that of Covid-19. While the virus is a significant concern, it is not apocalyptic. People suffer, but they also endure. This virus will eventually pass and is already on the decline in many places.
Africa's Covid-19 Statistics
As of May 13, the total number of Covid-19 deaths in the 55 African Union countries was 2,382, averaging 43 and a median of just 10 deaths per country. Only Algeria and Egypt have reported over 500 deaths. Excluding these two countries, the average falls to 1.3 deaths per week per country. These figures are not significant enough to warrant widespread panic or massive shutdowns.
Compared to Covid-19, other diseases cause significantly more deaths in countries like South Africa, Kenya, and Nigeria. For instance, HIV/AIDS, heart diseases, influenza and pneumonia, diarrhoea, and tuberculosis claim hundreds of thousands of lives each year in these countries.
Lessons for Africa from Global Experiences
The World Health Organisation (WHO) has suggested that the novel coronavirus "may become just another endemic virus in our communities, and this virus may never go away." This statement, coupled with Africa's relatively minor experience with the pandemic so far, provides a framework for how Africa can address this "crisis" as a potential, but not current, serious human security threat.
Africa has the chance to lead the world in adopting an evidence-based approach rather than one driven by fear, offering a beacon of sanity in a world gripped by panic.
The Consequences of Lockdown Strategies
The consequences of lockdown strategies can be particularly devastating for poorer countries. A study by the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health warns that in low- and middle-income countries, infant mortality could increase by 1.2 million in the next six months, and maternal mortality by 56,700, due to disruption of health services caused by the pandemic. This goes beyond unintended and perverse consequences.
A Three-Step Strategy for Africa: Monitor, Prepare, and Act
While Europe and North America, which make up just 14% of the world's population, account for 75% and 86% of the world's total coronavirus infections and deaths respectively, Asia, with 60% of the world's population, accounts for only 16% and 8%. Remarkably, Africa's shares are 17%, 1.5% and 0.8%, respectively. The science behind the pandemic is not fully understood, and no one can satisfactorily explain why Africa has been largely spared so far. However, this is the current reality, and there is no immediate need for African countries to take drastic action.
Nonetheless, due to the possibility of the virus evolving and causing a sudden and severe outbreak, Africa should enhance surveillance and testing capabilities across the continent, including at airports and seaports. Vigilance is the essential counterpart to caution without panic.
The Role of Global Cooperation and WHO
The pandemic and the ensuing socio-economic crises underscore the need for global circuit-breakers to identify, isolate, and quarantine systemic risks early. This crisis presents an opportunity to reboot the ethic of global cooperation.
The WHO, in partnership with the African Union's African Center for Disease Control (African CDC), has a crucial role in helping African countries develop the capacity to manage epidemics. This is why African countries should resist US efforts to undermine the WHO and instead seek assistance from the WHO and African CDC to establish testing facilities and protocols, stockpile essential testing and protective equipment and therapeutic medicines, and build ICU capacity to cope with sudden surges of infections.
Considering the low infection rates, living conditions, and economic realities, the test, isolate, treat, and trace approach seems more suitable for Africa than panic-driven lockdown strategies, which could potentially cause more deaths than Covid-19 itself.
Bottom Line
The Covid-19 pandemic has presented unique challenges and opportunities for Africa. The continent's relatively low infection rates provide a chance to adopt an evidence-based approach to managing the pandemic, rather than one driven by fear. However, vigilance and preparedness are key, given the potential for the virus to evolve and cause a sudden outbreak. What are your thoughts on this matter? Feel free to share this article with your friends and sign up for the Daily Briefing, delivered every day at 6pm.
