Polymarket's October Swing Towards Trump
In recent developments concerning the 2024 White House race, a significant shift has been observed in the crypto-based Polymarket online betting marketplace towards Donald Trump. At the beginning of October, the odds for a Trump victory were even, but they have since surged to 60%, while Kamala Harris' odds have dropped to 40%.
Four Accounts Powering Trump's Surge
According to the Wall Street Journal, this shift is primarily due to the actions of four accounts that have collectively placed $30 million in bets on the former president. The timing of these accounts' activities suggests that they might be controlled by a single entity. Polymarket has brought in external experts to examine transactions related to presidential election betting, as per an unidentified source.
The Betting Strategy
These four accounts have primarily focused on betting that Trump will win the electoral college count. They have also placed bets on individual state contests and the possibility of Trump winning the popular vote. However, this is considered a long shot, as Polymarket currently gives Trump only a 32% chance of winning the popular vote.
Are the Four Accounts Connected?
Miguel Morel, CEO of Arkham Intelligence, told the Journal, "There’s strong reason to believe they are the same entity." The accounts, named Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie, were all funded by deposits from Kraken, a U.S.-based crypto exchange. They exhibit similar behavior, systematically placing frequent bets on Trump and increasing their bet sizes simultaneously. The oldest account was created in June, while the newest one was established this month.
Intentional Narrative-Control Scheme?
The Journal suggested that these concentrated bets could be part of an intentional narrative-control scheme. This view is shared by crypto investor Adam Cochran, who describes himself as a right-of-center Harris supporter. However, Rutgers University stats professor Harry Crane noted that other betting markets also favor Trump and that large bettors often influence market odds. He stated that buying a large number of shares on one outcome does not necessarily imply an ulterior motive or an attempt to manipulate the market.
Polymarket and American Users
Americans are officially not allowed to use Polymarket. A source familiar with the situation assured Reuters that the four accounts responsible for the $30 million bet wave are not owned by an American. This conclusion is based on the company's practice of certifying large traders to ensure they are not using VPNs to conceal their locations.
Current Polymarket Odds
As the Polymarket surge began in early October, Elon Musk, a Trump supporter, highlighted Trump's then-3% lead in the odds. He described betting markets as "more accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line." Currently, in addition to the 60% chance of a Trump victory, Polymarket gives the GOP an 81% chance of gaining control of the Senate, but predicts a 51% chance of the Democrats controlling the House of Representatives.
Bottom Line
The sudden shift in Polymarket odds towards Trump, powered by four accounts, raises intriguing questions about the influence of big bettors on market odds. It also highlights the potential for online betting platforms to be used as tools for narrative control. What are your thoughts on this development? Do you think these accounts are attempting to manipulate the market, or are they simply making strategic bets? Share this article with your friends and let them know your views. Remember, you can sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is delivered every day at 6pm.
