Preview of the Week Ahead: PMIs, Durables, Fed Speakers, and Earnings
DB's Jim Reid has offered a preview of the upcoming week, noting that while it may not be the most exciting week, there is still plenty to consider and respond to. This is especially true given that the earnings season is in full swing and the US election, which appears to be extremely close, is just two weeks away.
Reid pointed out that over the last two weeks, the probability markets have been moving back towards Trump. At the beginning of October, a Republican sweep was seen as a 28% probability on Polymarket.com, but that has now shifted to a 42% chance. A Democrat sweep has fallen from 21% to 14%.
Trump's Tariff Comment and Fiscal Deficit
Trump recently stated that "the most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariff", which should remind markets that he is serious about this issue if he gets elected. Regarding fiscal matters, Deutsche Bank economists predict that the deficit will be between around 7 to 9% from 2026-2028, regardless of who is in the White House.
IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings
The IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Washington are taking place this week. The focus is expected to be on the unsustainability of global debt, but this is likely more of a medium-term concern rather than something markets will react to this week. Numerous central bankers are speaking at the various Washington events, including ECB President Lagarde and BoE's Governor Bailey.
BRICS Summit and Data Highlights
The BRICS summit, hosted by Putin, is also taking place this week in Kazan, Russia. China's President Xi and India's Prime Minister Modi are expected to attend.
As for data, the main highlight is probably the round of global flash PMIs. Other data highlights include German PPI, French retail sales, and the US leading index, the US Phili Fed, US existing home sales, the Beige book, Eurozone consumer confidence, and the Bank of Canada meeting. US initial jobless claims, US durable goods, Tokyo CPI, and the German Ifo are also worth noting.
Corporate Earnings
In terms of corporate earnings, the main highlights are SAP, Texas Instruments, GE, GM, Tesla, IBM, and Boeing.
Day-by-Day Calendar of Events
DB has provided a day-by-day calendar of events for the week, which includes economic data releases, central bank activities, and corporate earnings.
US Economic Data and Fed Officials' Speeches
Goldman Sachs notes that the key economic data release in the US this week is the durable goods report on Friday. There are also several speaking engagements from Fed officials throughout the week.
Bottom Line
While the week may not be filled with high-profile events, there are still plenty of factors for investors to consider. From corporate earnings to economic data releases and central bank activities, these elements could all have an impact on the markets. With the US election looming, political developments will also be in focus. What are your thoughts on the events of the week? Feel free to share this article with your friends and discuss. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is delivered every day at 6pm.
