Revised Violent Crime Statistics by the FBI
In September 2023, the FBI released the "final" crime data for 2022, which indicated a 2.1% decrease in the nation's violent crime rate. This figure was widely used by the Democratic Party to refute Donald Trump's claims of escalating crime. However, the FBI has discreetly revised these figures, revealing that violent crime in 2022 actually increased by 4.5%. The updated data includes thousands more instances of murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault.
Unannounced Revisions and Lack of Explanation
The FBI, which has been at the center of partisan controversies, did not mention these revisions in its September 2024 press release. The changes were discovered through a cryptic reference on the FBI website, but no mention was made of the increase. The new data can only be seen by comparing the recently released crime data with the file released last year.
The FBI's failure to acknowledge or explain the significant change has raised concerns among researchers. Carl Moody, a professor at the College of William & Mary who specializes in studying crime, stated that the substantial changes in 2021 and 2022, especially without an explanation, make it difficult to trust the FBI data. Dr. Thomas Marvell, the president of Justec Research, a criminal justice statistical research organization, echoed Moody's sentiments, stating that it is the FBI's responsibility to explain their actions, which they have not done.
Significant Changes in Crime Numbers
The revisions in the crime data are substantial. The updated data for 2022 shows that there were 80,029 more violent crimes than in 2021. This includes an additional 1,699 murders, 7,780 rapes, 33,459 robberies, and 37,091 aggravated assaults. This raises the question of whether the FBI's 2023 numbers can be trusted.
Without the increase, the decrease in violent crime in 2023 would have been less than half as large – only 1.6% instead of the reported drop of 3.5%. The FBI is not the only government agency to revise its data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics significantly overestimated the number of jobs created during the year that ended in March by 818,000 people.
Problems with FBI Crime Data
Another issue with the FBI's crime data is its reliance on reported crimes. Most crimes go unreported, with only about 45% of violent crimes and 30% of property crimes being reported to the police, according to the National Crime Victimization Survey. Since the FBI only tracks reported incidents and this gap is so large, researchers argue that when the media discusses crime rates based on FBI data, they should clarify that it reflects "reported" crime, not give the impression that total crime is changing.
Nonreporting of crime doesn't affect all crimes equally. Nonreporting of murder and motor vehicle theft is relatively rare. In murder cases, victims can't be overlooked, and for auto theft, insurance claims require police reports. However, it's difficult to fully trust even these numbers because the FBI underreported 1,699 murders and 54,216 motor vehicle thefts in 2022, casting doubt on the reliability of the data.
Other Data Show Sharper Rises in Crime
While the FBI claims that serious violent crime has fallen by 5.8% since Biden took office, the NCVS numbers show that total violent crime has risen by 55.4%. Rapes are up by 42%, robbery by 63%, and aggravated assault by 55% during Biden’s term. Since the NCVS started, the largest previous increase over three years was 27% in 2006, so the increase under Biden was slightly more than twice as large.
Bottom Line
The FBI's recent revisions of its violent crime statistics have raised questions about the accuracy and reliability of such data. The lack of transparency and explanation regarding these changes has further fueled skepticism and distrust. It's crucial for such agencies to maintain transparency and accountability in their data reporting to ensure public trust and informed decision-making. What are your thoughts on this matter? Do you think these revisions could have been handled better? Share this article with your friends and let us know your opinions. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is delivered every day at 6pm.
