Second Trump Administration's Take on National Security
Trump's Continued Lead and Its Implications
Despite a challenging July, Donald Trump is still leading in the polls. This suggests that businesses should prepare for the potential of a second Trump administration. Having served in the White House during my Marine Corps tenure, I have firsthand experience of how President Trump views national security policy. His first-term policies, the 2017 National Security Strategy, and his public and private statements provide a clear picture of his potential second-term agenda. This would likely involve a broader view of national security, emphasizing U.S. economic and technological supremacy. The competition with China would be a central focus.
Addressing Chinese Misconduct
In a second term, Trump's administration would not allow China to continue stealing U.S. intellectual property or undermining our industries. Instead, the U.S. would strive to curb Chinese control of critical minerals and commodities, and halt the import of goods at low prices. Any widespread misconduct by China would be met with a vigilant response, with the protection of our technological advantages and economic interests taking center stage.
Bipartisan Concerns and Priorities
The threat that China poses is a concern shared by both Republicans and Democrats. In his second term, Trump would prioritize maintaining and expanding America's technological and innovative edge. He would likely use the power of government to benefit U.S. workers and industry, with a particular focus on manufacturing. This could involve building on the tariffs and export controls established during his first term.
Trump's Previous Actions and Future Plans
In March 2018, President Trump used his authority under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act to set a 25% tariff on steel imports and a 10% tariff on imported aluminum. His administration also imposed Section 301 tariffs on over $300 billion worth of goods from China. A second term could see Trump doubling down on these actions, with increased tariffs on Chinese goods and pressure on our European and Indo-Pacific allies to mirror our export control and sanctions regimes against China.
CFIUS Investigations and Oversight
During his first term, Trump prioritized reviews by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). In 2018, he signed into law the comprehensive Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act (FIRRMA), marking the most extensive CFIUS reform since 2007. In a second term, Trump's administration would likely increase CFIUS investigations and expand oversight to include real estate near military bases and installations.
Addressing Intellectual Espionage
A second Trump administration would also likely focus on Chinese attempts at intellectual espionage and influence at American universities. In 2020, Trump issued a proclamation suspending the entry of certain students and researchers from China, aiming to prevent U.S. campuses from becoming breeding grounds for our future adversaries. Future actions would aim to secure our national laboratories and national security-related research programs.
Trump's America First Vision
Trump's America First vision is not about isolationism. Instead, it represents a rational strategy for advancing U.S. interests while securing the country's economic and national security priorities, as well as those of our allies. If reelected, Trump would likely demand that NATO members increase their defense spending. However, asking Europeans to play a larger role in their defense is not the same as abandoning a historic alliance.
Building on the AUKUS Agreement
In his second term, Trump would likely build on the 2021 Trilateral agreement between Australia, the U.K., and the U.S. (AUKUS). This would strengthen U.S. interests in the Pacific as we seek to compete with China on a wide range of issues. Expanding AUKUS to include Japan and South Korea, even through bilateral agreements, would be a likely course of action.
Defense Spending and Technological Investments
President Trump would likely call for record defense spending, prioritizing America's strength over deficit concerns. His defense budgets would likely include substantial investments in artificial intelligence and quantum sciences, critical areas for both U.S. economic and national security. A second Trump administration would heavily invest in funding critical technology research and development at the Pentagon, national laboratories, and within private industry.
Preparing for a Policy-Rich Landscape
In the final months of the presidential campaign, hyperbole and rhetoric will likely dominate the discourse. However, business leaders who anticipate the policy-rich national security landscape that a second Trump administration promises will be well-positioned to reap the benefits.
Bottom Line
The potential of a second Trump administration brings with it a host of implications for national security, particularly in relation to China. With a focus on technological supremacy, increased defense spending, and a broadened view of national security, the landscape could change significantly. What are your thoughts on these potential changes? Do you think they will benefit the U.S. in the long run? Share this article with your friends and sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is available every day at 6pm.
