Seismic Activity in Iran Sparks Rumors of Nuclear Weapons Test

Seismic Event Raises Suspicions

A 4.5-magnitude seismic event that occurred in Iran’s Semnan province on Saturday has sparked speculation that Iran may have tested a nuclear weapon for the first time. While such an event is usually indicative of an earthquake, rumors have begun to circulate on social media suggesting that the event was actually an underground nuclear test carried out by Iran in response to Israeli threats to bomb Tehran’s nuclear energy and oil facilities.

High-Level Discussions in Iran

According to Iranian sources who spoke with The Cradle, the possibility of a nuclear test is being discussed at high levels in Iran. Syrian sources speaking with The Cradle in September had predicted that Iran would seek to develop a breakout nuclear weapons capability in response to Israel’s assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

Iran's Response to Israeli Actions

Following Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and IRGC commander Abbas Nilforushan on September 27, Iran launched at least 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, causing damage to three airbases on October 1. Iran is now awaiting a possible Israeli response.

Heritage Foundation's Report on Iran's Nuclear Capability

The speculation about Iran's nuclear test comes just days after the Heritage Foundation, a right-wing think tank in the US, published a report stating that "Iran can produce nuclear weapons far more rapidly than expected." The report, published on October 1st, noted that a senior Iranian lawmaker had stated in late April 2024 that there is only a "one-week gap from the issuance of the order to the first test" of a nuclear bomb.

Change in Iran's Nuclear Doctrine

In May, an adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned that Iran may be forced to change its nuclear doctrine, which until now has called only for using nuclear technology for civilian purposes. The Heritage Foundation report also noted that in July, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken seemed to corroborate this claim.

Increase in Iran’s Uranium Stockpile

Accompanying these statements was a significant increase in Iran’s stockpile of Uranium enriched to the 60 percent level between May and August 2024, according to a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Notably, Uranium that is enriched up to 60 percent purity is just a short technical step away from the 90 percent required for nuclear weapons.

"Project Midan"

The Foundation for Defense of Democracy (FDD), an Israeli-linked think tank based in Washington, DC, issued a report in 2019 claiming that Iran had begun a program to build underground nuclear test sites starting in the 2000s known as "Project Midan."

Bottom Line

The recent seismic event in Iran has sparked a flurry of speculation and rumors about the possibility of a covert nuclear weapons test. With the increasing tension in the region, the implications of such an event, if true, could be significant. What are your thoughts on this development? Do you believe Iran is testing nuclear weapons, or is this merely speculation? Share your thoughts and this article with friends. Sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is delivered every day at 6pm.