The Deep State and Its Influence on Elections
The Deep State, a term often associated with the United States government, refers to the entrenched bureaucracy that truly governs a country. It is the establishment that holds the reins of power. However, it's not exclusive to the U.S.; many countries have their versions of the Deep State. Observing how these entities react when an outsider comes to power can provide insights into how the Deep State might operate in the U.S.
The Three Possible Outcomes
When an outsider ascends to power, there are three potential outcomes: the Deep State eliminates the outsider, the outsider manages to weaken the Deep State and implement an independent agenda, or the Deep State co-opts the outsider. These scenarios have played out in various countries throughout recent history.
Outcome One: The Deep State Eliminates the Outsider
The assassination of JFK is a prime example of the Deep State eliminating an outsider. In Egypt, Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood was an outsider who failed to dismantle the Egyptian Deep State, leading to his swift overthrow and subsequent death in prison. John Perkins, an Economic Hit Man, asserts that the Deep State assassinated Jaime Roldos and Omar Torrijos, independent leaders of Ecuador and Panama, after they resisted being co-opted.
Outcome Two: The Outsider Weakens the Deep State
Fidel Castro's revolution in Cuba succeeded because he managed to cripple the old Cuban Deep State. In Iran, the Islamic Revolution of 1979, led by Khomeini, succeeded by dismantling the old Iranian Deep State through violent purges of the military and security agencies. In Russia, Putin appears to have tamed the old Russian Deep State by taking on the oligarchs and making an example out of Mikhail Khodorkovsky. In Turkey, Erdogan, once considered an outsider, managed to tame Turkey's Deep State by purging and restructuring the military and intelligence agencies after surviving a military coup in 2016.
Outcome Three: The Deep State Co-opts the Outsider
Trump's first term in office serves as an excellent example of how the Deep State can co-opt an outsider. In Europe, supposed outsiders like Giorgia Meloni in Italy or Geert Wilders in the Netherlands showed no intention or ability to confront the Deep State and were easily co-opted by it.
The Potential for a Second Trump Term
The main lesson from these examples is that an outsider cannot succeed in implementing an independent agenda unless they can confront the Deep State and win. This is a risky proposition, as there is a high chance the Deep State will eliminate them first. Few leaders are willing to gamble with their lives in this way, and even fewer succeed. That's why many outsiders choose to cooperate with the Deep State.
There's a reasonable chance that Trump could return to the White House in a matter of months. It's crucial to keep this Deep State dynamic in mind when assessing the investment implications of Trump's potential second term. The recent assassination attempts suggest that the Deep State felt Trump would be too independent in a second term. The question is whether Trump is willing and able to cripple the Deep State, or if he will be co-opted, as he largely was during his first term.
Bottom Line
For Trump to implement an independent agenda, he must survive further Deep State assassination attempts, overcome cheating and a hostile media to win an election rigged against him, make the decision to confront the Deep State, and succeed in crippling it. The odds of all these things happening are slim.
Many people want Trump to be a savior, but it's not a safe bet given current circumstances. If investors want to plan for a potential second Trump term, the base case scenario is that the permanently entrenched bureaucracy that really runs a country will co-opt him. That means we can expect Trump in a second term to continue with the same overall agenda but with a different flavor.
The Deep State's overall agenda seems to be focused on perpetuating the US-led world order. In other words, the US government's unmatched global dominance it has enjoyed since the end of World War 2. The Deep State doesn't care if Trump implements different social policies or other inconsequential domestic pet projects, so long as he does not do anything to fundamentally alter the dominance of the US in the world.
With a new Trump administration, we will likely see the current anti-Russian focus substituted with an anti-China one. The idea is to continue pursuing a policy of US global hegemony but with a different flavor. A new anti-China focus means we can expect trade protectionism, economic sanctions, trade embargoes, disruption of supply chains, and more currency debasement.
As we approach the most pivotal election, we've just entered the most turbulent period in US history, more dangerous than the 1930s, the 1940s, and even the 1860s. Severe crises are brewing on multiple fronts and converging. The whole system will have a complete reset, and soon. Will the 2024 US presidential election on November 5 be the turning point?
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