The Implications of Fertility Rates on Society

The Fascination with Sci-Fi Films and Fertility Themes

Russell Clark, a fan of science fiction films, recommends the 2006 film "Children of Men." The film imagines a future where a global pandemic has caused worldwide infertility. This theme resonated more with Clark after becoming a father.

Real-world Fertility Rates and Societal Impact

The film's depiction of societal collapse due to declining fertility rates doesn't align with real-world observations. For instance, Japan, known for its falling population, has not experienced societal collapse. Older societies tend to prefer order over chaos. The International Monetary Fund's population numbers assume that fertility rates will remain low. However, the human instinct to procreate, evidenced by the global population of 8 billion, suggests that fertility rates could rise. This is seen in Israel, where ultra-orthodox Jews, who tend to have more children, make up a larger proportion of the population.

Capitalism and Fertility Rates

Capitalism may not be conducive to high fertility rates. The shift towards capitalism in the 1970s marked the end of the baby boom. Eastern European countries that transitioned from socialism to capitalism in the 1990s saw a dramatic decrease in fertility rates, even as incomes increased. Falling incomes relative to asset prices could be a factor in declining fertility rates. However, if workers feel more secure about their future, fertility rates may rise.

Technology and Fertility Rates

Families are choosing to have children later in life, which naturally reduces the fertility window. However, advancements in technology, such as in vitro fertilization (IVF), are allowing women to have healthy babies later in life. The success of IVF is tied to the age of the eggs and embryos, not the mother. Freezing eggs before the age of 30 can enable successful births in the 40s. Although the evidence is mixed, Denmark, which has liberal and supportive IVF policies, saw a significant increase in births after policy changes.

Case Study: Australia

Australia, a nation built on immigration, has seen a steady decline in fertility rates. However, assisted reproductive technology (ART) births have continued to rise, accounting for nearly 6% of all live births. The number of IVF cycles, which indicate the intention to have children, are also increasing.

Future Predictions

Clark does not believe that we face a fertility crisis. He envisions a future where the death of the baby boomer generation leads to a labor demand surge and a decline in the working population. This could result in increased government spending for the young, raising disposable incomes and enabling families to afford more children. Women who froze their eggs in their 20s could have more children in their late 30s and early 40s. This could lead to a younger population and pro-natal policies.

Bottom Line

Clark's analysis challenges the notion that low fertility rates will lead to societal collapse. He argues that capitalism, technology, and human instinct to procreate could lead to a rise in fertility rates. What are your thoughts on this perspective? Do you agree with Clark's predictions? Feel free to share this article with your friends and engage in a discussion. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is available every day at 6pm.