Trump's Unexpected Rise in Key Battleground States
According to mainstream polling, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are at a virtual tie in seven key battleground states. However, betting markets, which Rutgers statistics professor Harry Crane suggests can be more accurate than public polls, have recently shown a significant surge for Trump.
Trump and Harris in the Race
Polymarket data reveals that Trump began to surge in Michigan late last week, and also saw a rise in Arizona and Pennsylvania on Monday. This shift in Michigan was noted late last week and continued over the weekend.
Kamala's Dwindling Lead?
Online betting has seen a significant shift towards Trump, putting Harris at risk of losing all three battleground states where she still holds a lead (Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin), as Pennsylvania moves deeper into Trump's camp.
Even the New York Times suggests that Harris' lead in Pennsylvania in mainstream polling could be misleading. The publication states that the stability of the poll average could be due to many pollsters using statistical techniques that reduce the variance of their results from poll to poll but increase the risk of systematic errors. Systematic polling errors, where one side performs better than expected, have been common in recent cycles.
Historical Polling Errors
In the 2016 and 2020 elections, the polls underestimated Trump almost everywhere. If this pattern repeats this cycle, Trump could easily claim victory. However, in the 2022 polls, Democrats were underestimated in most key states. If this were to happen again, it would be Harris who would claim a victory.
Ipsos Polling Results
Meanwhile, Ipsos polling from late last week of the seven swing states reveals Trump performing better than Harris in various key metrics. For starters, battleground voters are more than twice as likely to see the vice president as part of the political establishment than they are the former president. Thirty-five percent of respondents believe Harris is part of the current system, while just 16% make the same assertion about Trump.
Despite voters seeing Harris as the establishment candidate, they also discount her lack of experience compared with the former president. Forty-seven percent of respondents credit Trump with more experience, while only 21% believe Harris is the more seasoned choice.
On the issues, a number of them play to the former president’s strength, particularly immigration. Forty-eight percent of battleground voters trust Trump over Harris to handle the issue of undocumented aliens. On matters of war and terrorism, Trump is also the preferred choice with 42% of voters favoring his approach, while 32% believe Harris is better suited to handle global conflict.
Bottom Line
The political landscape is ever-changing, with unexpected twists and turns. The recent surge for Trump in key battleground states, as revealed by betting markets, is a testament to this unpredictability. It remains to be seen how this shift will play out in the final results. What are your thoughts on this development? Feel free to share this article with your friends and engage in a discussion. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, delivered every day at 6pm.
Trump's Unexpected Rise in Key Battleground States
According to mainstream polling, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are at a virtual tie in seven key battleground states. However, betting markets, which Rutgers statistics professor Harry Crane suggests can be more accurate than public polls, have recently shown a significant surge for Trump.
Trump and Harris in the Race
Polymarket data reveals that Trump began to surge in Michigan late last week, and also saw a rise in Arizona and Pennsylvania on Monday. This shift in Michigan was noted late last week and continued over the weekend.
Kamala's Dwindling Lead?
Online betting has seen a significant shift towards Trump, putting Harris at risk of losing all three battleground states where she still holds a lead (Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin), as Pennsylvania moves deeper into Trump's camp.
Even the New York Times suggests that Harris' lead in Pennsylvania in mainstream polling could be misleading. The publication states that the stability of the poll average could be due to many pollsters using statistical techniques that reduce the variance of their results from poll to poll but increase the risk of systematic errors. Systematic polling errors, where one side performs better than expected, have been common in recent cycles.
Historical Polling Errors
In the 2016 and 2020 elections, the polls underestimated Trump almost everywhere. If this pattern repeats this cycle, Trump could easily claim victory. However, in the 2022 polls, Democrats were underestimated in most key states. If this were to happen again, it would be Harris who would claim a victory.
Ipsos Polling Results
Meanwhile, Ipsos polling from late last week of the seven swing states reveals Trump performing better than Harris in various key metrics. For starters, battleground voters are more than twice as likely to see the vice president as part of the political establishment than they are the former president. Thirty-five percent of respondents believe Harris is part of the current system, while just 16% make the same assertion about Trump.
Despite voters seeing Harris as the establishment candidate, they also discount her lack of experience compared with the former president. Forty-seven percent of respondents credit Trump with more experience, while only 21% believe Harris is the more seasoned choice.
On the issues, a number of them play to the former president’s strength, particularly immigration. Forty-eight percent of battleground voters trust Trump over Harris to handle the issue of undocumented aliens. On matters of war and terrorism, Trump is also the preferred choice with 42% of voters favoring his approach, while 32% believe Harris is better suited to handle global conflict.
Bottom Line
The political landscape is ever-changing, with unexpected twists and turns. The recent surge for Trump in key battleground states, as revealed by betting markets, is a testament to this unpredictability. It remains to be seen how this shift will play out in the final results. What are your thoughts on this development? Feel free to share this article with your friends and engage in a discussion. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, delivered every day at 6pm.
