Turkey's Response to War in Lebanon and Renewed Destabilization of Syria
As Israel continues its activities in the Middle East, with support from the United States, Turkey is assessing the shifting landscape and considering its options. These include economic and security concerns, ties with NATO and BRICS countries, and its own regional aspirations.
Numan Kurtulmus, the Turkish Parliament Speaker, recently emphasized Turkey's position, stating that the country follows its own "national axis" in foreign policy and rejects the idea that it must align with any power or bloc. The question arises as to where this "national axis" will lead the country as the Middle East becomes increasingly volatile and Turkey is in a position to play a significant role.
Turkey's Stance on Israel
Despite Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s rhetoric against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, goods from Turkey continue to flow to Israel. Additionally, oil continues to flow through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline from Azerbaijan to Turkey’s Ceyhan port, where it is shipped to Haifa, making up approximately 40 percent of Israel’s supply.
Despite announcing a halt to exports to Israel in early May due to the "worsening humanitarian tragedy" in the Palestinian territories, goods, including critical minerals and chemicals used by the Israeli military, have managed to circumvent the export ban by going through third countries, such as Greece. The US also continues to use Incirlik Air Base in southern Turkey to assist Israel.
Six Key Issues for Turkey
There are six key issues confronting the Turkish government as it decides how to proceed:
1. The US and Israel may be seeking regime change in Lebanon, which Turkey could potentially support as it is not a supporter of Hezbollah.
2. The Syrian and Lebanese refugee crises are causing significant strain on Turkey, which is already struggling with inflation and economic stagnation.
3. The conflicts in the region may spill over into Syria, potentially destabilizing the fragile ceasefires in various parts of the country.
4. There are suggestions that ISIS may be attempting to reestablish itself in the region.
5. There may be multiple US proxies versus Russia in Syria, with recent Israeli airstrikes in Syria likely targeting an ammunition warehouse near the largest Russian air base in Syria.
6. The US and the Kurds: Turkey and Russia have been increasingly cooperating in Syria, while Turkey and the US frequently come close to direct conflict.
Bottom Line
The current situation in the Middle East is complex and volatile, with Turkey in a position to play a significant role. The decisions made by the Turkish government will have far-reaching implications, both regionally and globally. What are your thoughts on this situation? Share this article with your friends and let us know your views. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is available every day at 6pm.
