U.S. Unprepared for Major War, says Military Industrial Complex Think Tank

RAND Corporation's Report to Congress and the President

The RAND Corporation, a research institute and consulting firm associated with the military industrial complex, submitted a report to Congress and the President in July. The report, which focused on the U.S.'s national defense strategy, revealed that the country is not prepared to win a significant war.

The report stated: “The threats the United States faces are the most serious and most challenging the nation has encountered since 1945 and include the potential for near-term major war. The United States last fought a global conflict during World War II, which ended nearly 80 years ago. The nation was last prepared for such a fight during the Cold War, which ended 35 years ago. It is not prepared today.”

Escalating Threats and Domestic Military Readiness

The report outlined the increasing threats from foreign adversaries and simultaneously underscored the deficiencies in domestic military readiness. The report pointed out that China, in many ways, is outpacing the United States. It stated that China has largely negated the U.S. military advantage in the Western Pacific through two decades of focused military investment. Without significant change by the United States, the balance of power will continue to shift in China’s favor, the report warned.

North Korea and Iran: Threats in a Multi-front War

The RAND Corporation also detailed the threat posed by North Korea and Iran in the context of a multi-front war, a threat that has become increasingly real in recent times. The report stated: “China and Russia’s “no-limits” partnership, formed in February 2022 just days before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has only deepened and broadened to include a military and economic partnership with Iran and North Korea, each of which presents its own significant threat to U.S. interests. This new alignment of nations opposed to U.S. interests creates a real risk, if not likelihood, that conflict anywhere could become a multitheater or global war.”

Recommendations for the Future

The report also suggested a few key weapons systems for further development while recommending the phasing out of obsolete ones. It emphasized the need to prepare for new forms of conflict and to integrate technology and new capabilities rapidly with older systems. These technologies include swarms of attritable systems, artificial intelligence-enabled capabilities, hypersonics and electronic warfare, fully integrated cyber and space capabilities, and vigorous competition in the information domain. Programs that are not needed for future combat should be divested to invest in others, the report advised.

Transition to Robotic Forces

Interestingly, former Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley recently predicted that a third of the U.S. military could be made up of robotic forces by 2039, indicating a potential phaseout of human forces. Despite this, the U.S. military is laying the groundwork for the reinstatement of the draft. This transition from a volunteer human force to a mandatory human force and then to a robotic force would certainly necessitate a significant change in mindset.

Need for a Change in Mindset

The RAND Corporation called for this change in mindset in their July report. The report stated: “Implementing these recommendations to boost all elements of national power will require sustained presidential leadership and a fundamental change in mindset at the Pentagon, at the National Security Council and across executive branch departments and agencies, in Congress, and among the American public writ large.”

Bottom Line

The RAND Corporation's report paints a sobering picture of the current state of the U.S.'s national defense strategy. It highlights the urgent need for a change in mindset and a focus on innovation and technological advancement. But the question remains: is the U.S. ready to make these significant changes? And what does this mean for the future of warfare? Share your thoughts and discuss this article with your friends. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, available every day at 6pm.