Unveiling Zelensky's "Victory Plan": A Closer Look at the Possible Motives

Zelensky recently shared the initial five parts of his much-anticipated "Victory Plan" with the Rada, while keeping three parts confidential. A closer look at his speech and Reuters' summary reveals that his plan may be unrealistic due to Ukraine's demands: an invitation to join NATO, joint interception of Russian missiles, and hosting a comprehensive non-nuclear strategic deterrence package on its soil, among other demands.

NATO's Reluctance

These demands are likely to be rejected by NATO, as the bloc is hesitant to get directly involved in this proxy war. More pragmatic policymakers fear that such involvement could escalate into World War III, which is why nothing of this sort has happened yet. This does not mean that more hawkish elements within NATO might not try to change this stance, but it does indicate that Zelensky's demands are unlikely to be met unless that happens.

Ulterior Motives?

Zelensky is likely aware of these calculations, which have been in place for over two and a half years. This raises the question of his real motives behind making such demands. Some suggest that he might be hinting at his desires after a possible "escalation to de-escalate" in the near future, or he might be setting the stage for a "stab-in-the-back" theory. The first scenario could involve a nuclear provocation or an attack on Belarus. The second scenario was given some credibility by the Royal United Services Institute in an article about the potential betrayal of Ukraine.

Trading Military Support for Mineral Riches?

These scenarios could be avoided if the G7 agrees to meet some of his military demands in exchange for access to Ukraine's critical mineral resources, as suggested by one point in his "Victory Plan". This builds on what Zelensky promised the G7 in May 2022, indicating a precedent for him offering his country's resources in exchange for support. However, if these mineral resources do not tempt the West into fulfilling at least part of his "Victory Plan", Zelensky might resort to one of the two backup plans discussed earlier.

Bottom Line

The recent revelations suggest that ulterior motives might be at play, given that Zelensky's main demands have already been rejected. Even the suggestion of exchanging Ukraine's critical mineral resources for military support might not sway the West, given its fear of an uncontrollable escalation with nuclear-armed Russia. As a result, it might be prudent to expect Zelensky to either "escalate to de-escalate" or blame Ukraine's defeat on the West. What are your thoughts on this matter? Do you think Zelensky's "Victory Plan" is realistic, or are there hidden motives at play? Share this article with your friends and let us know your thoughts. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is available every day at 6pm.