US More Concerned About Escalation With Russia Than Iran

According to a report published on Wednesday by Politico, the United States is more apprehensive about an uncontrollable escalation sequence with Russia than with Iran. This is primarily due to Russia's nuclear capabilities. The report cites a senior Senate aid and two sources within the Biden Administration.

US's Different Approach Towards Russia and Iran

The US has shown no hesitation in shooting down Iranian missiles aimed at Israel, but has refrained from doing the same with Russian missiles targeting Ukraine. This has led to feelings of disappointment and perceived secondary treatment among Ukrainian allies, including President Zelensky. The distinct approaches towards Russia/Ukraine and Iran/Israel can be attributed to the different dynamics in each pair.

Avoiding Uncontrollable Escalation

Last month, an analysis explained how the more pragmatic policymakers in Russia and the US have so far managed to prevent an uncontrollable escalation sequence, much to the chagrin of their hawkish rivals. These pragmatic policymakers have been signaling their escalatory intentions well in advance to allow Russia to prepare and avoid an overreaction that could lead to World War III. Similarly, Russia has been restraining itself from replicating the US's 'shock-and-awe' campaign to minimize the chance of the West directly intervening in the conflict and risking World War III.

Nuclear Power Balance

The balance of nuclear power between the US and Iran is not equivalent. Iran's maximum retaliation against the US would be launching saturation strikes against American bases in the region. However, it doesn't pose an existential threat to the US like Russia does. If Iran retaliates against an expected Israeli strike and harms or kills members of the US's THAAD team stationed in Israel, the US has several options for response. It could absorb the hit, retaliate against Iranian-aligned Resistance groups in the region, or directly strike Iran. Regardless of the outcome, non-nuclear Iran is incapable of posing an existential threat to the US like nuclear-armed Russia could. If Russia retaliated by hitting targets inside NATO, it could potentially trigger an apocalyptic escalation sequence.

Pragmatic Rivals Keeping Hawks in Check

There are certainly some US hawks who are willing to risk such a scenario, as well as a comparatively less consequential one in West Asia. However, their more pragmatic rivals have so far managed to keep them in check.

Bottom Line

The geopolitical dynamics between the US, Russia, and Iran are complex and fraught with potential for escalation. The US's differing approaches towards Russia and Iran highlight the significant role nuclear capabilities play in shaping international relations and conflict management strategies. It's a delicate balance that requires careful navigation to prevent catastrophic outcomes. What are your thoughts on this matter? Feel free to share this article with your friends and discuss. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, available every day at 6pm.