US Durable Goods Orders Experience Downward Revision... Yet Again!
The preliminary data for October indicates that the headline US durable goods orders experienced a decrease of 0.8% MoM (month over month), which is slightly better than the anticipated -1.0% MoM. This leaves orders down by 2.9% YoY (year over year).
Core Orders and Business Equipment Orders
Core orders, which exclude transportation, saw a rise of 0.4% MoM, slightly better than the expected -0.1%. However, orders placed with US factories for business equipment experienced a decline in the preliminary data for October. Additionally, the gain from the previous month was revised lower, indicating that firms are becoming more cautious about investment.
Consistent Downward Revisions
For the sixth time in the past seven months, durable goods orders have been revised downward. In August, the revision was from 0.0% MoM to -0.8% MoM. This raises questions about how The Fed, or any entity for that matter, is supposed to make decisions when the data is consistently and aggressively revised.
Bottom Line
The constant downward revision of US durable goods orders raises questions about the reliability of preliminary data and the challenges it poses for decision-making entities like The Fed. What are your thoughts on this issue? Do you believe these revisions are indicative of a larger issue in data reporting or the economy? Feel free to share this article with your friends and discuss it. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is available every day at 6pm.
