
US equity futures are showing signs of recovery, despite a tumultuous day in Hong Kong where China's record rally hit a significant roadblock. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up by 0.4%, recovering approximately half of Monday's losses, which marked the worst day since early September. Nasdaq futures are also on the rise, up by 0.5%, led by NVDA, MSFT and GOOG. Both indexes experienced a slide on Monday after traders reduced bets on rate cuts, pushing 10-year bond yields above 4.0% for the first time in two months. Despite these fluctuations, US stocks remain unchanged since the Fed's substantial rate cut.
Chinese markets have reopened after a week-long holiday. The country's central planner has expressed confidence in achieving its economic targets for the year, but stopped short of announcing further stimulus measures. This disappointed investors and led to a fizzling out of the rally in Chinese stocks. Hong Kong stocks took a significant hit, experiencing their worst crash since Lehman.
Today's market movements are a reversal of those seen yesterday, with yields falling and the Bloomberg dollar index remaining flat for the second consecutive day. Oil is down by 2.2% following disappointment from China’s NDRC press conference and a report from the New York Times suggesting Israel’s first retaliation will likely not target nuclear facilities.
In premarket trading, Super Micro Computer and Honeywell saw gains due to robust demand for servers and plans to spin off the industrial company's advanced materials division, respectively. US-listed Chinese stocks, however, took a hit as Beijing refrained from launching more major stimulus measures.
The focus will now turn to the US consumer inflation data, which is forecasted to slow to 2.3% year-on-year from the previous 2.5% reading. Traders are pricing a rate cut of less than a quarter-point at the Fed’s November meeting, though they still see about 48 basis points of policy easing by year-end.
#Bottom Line
The current market situation is a clear reflection of the complex interplay of global economic factors. The confidence of China's central planner in achieving its economic targets for the year, coupled with the lack of further stimulus measures, has had a significant impact on the global market. The US consumer inflation data will be a key factor in determining future market movements. What are your thoughts on these developments? Feel free to share this article with your friends and discuss. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing which is everyday at 6pm.